The great resignation: is there light at the end of the tunnel?

The UK economy has been in the throes of employment difficulties since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, drowning in rising vacancies and a lack of employee retention. As we all know, the hospitality industry has arguably been the worst hit sector as restaurants and hotels are struggling more than ever to find staff.

As such, the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) warns that the travel and tourism sector’s recovery is at serious risk as nearly 130,000 jobs go unfilled across the UK, threatening the UK’s economic recovery.

According to the global tourism body, the UK is expected to see a shortfall of 128,000 jobs, with one in 14 job openings expected to remain vacant. To put this into perspective, prior to the pandemic in 2019 there were 1.8 million people employed in travel and tourism in the UK. By 2020, over 200,000 had lost their jobs and post-pandemic, the sector has lost 50% of its value.

Despite the UK government’s furlough scheme, which provided much needed relief to the sector, WTTC says more support is needed to fill these vacancies and boost the economy through its contribution to GDP.

However, there might just be some light at the end of the tunnel. Contrary to WTTC’s report, BDO found that hiring intentions among UK businesses remain strong despite a turbulent outlook across output and inflation.

The BDO Employment Index soared to 114.79 in July, its highest level since January 2019, up 0.23 points on June. Staff shortages heightened by Brexit and the pandemic have been driving a buoyant labour market as firms push to recruit, which can be seen in the unemployment rate which stood at 3.8% in the three months to May.

Additionally, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK employment rate in July increased by 0.4 percentage points on the quarter to 75.9%, although this is still below pre-pandemic levels.

The number of full-time employees increased during the latest three-month period to a record high, as did the number of part-time employees. The ONS says this shows a recovery from the large falls in the early stages of the pandemic. In addition, while the number of self-employed workers fell during the pandemic and has remained low, the number has increased during the latest three-month period.

Nevertheless a tough inflationary environment and the threat of a recession look to diminish employers’ hiring intentions towards the end of the year, mirroring the declining trend witnessed by BDO’s Employment Index during the 2008 financial crisis.

Unlike countries like Portugal, the UK is refusing to allow in temporary workers from overseas, so it’s up to individual businesses to take matters into their own hands. Subsequently, the WTTC has highlighted a series of steps hospitality companies can take to address these issues:

• Enabling flexible and remote working where possible, such as allowing part time or contractor-based opportunities
• Ensuring competitive employee benefits and average pay increases
• Developing comprehensive educational programmes, such as upskilling and reskilling current talent
• Adopting innovative technological and digital solutions to alleviate pressure on staff, improve daily operations and an enhanced customer experience

So, as the prospect of a recession lays on the horizon and creates a less optimistic outlook for the rest of the year, recruitment still currently remains high on employers’ agenda. If hospitality businesses offer competitive employee packages and the flexible working arrangements that many require in these unprecedented times, could there be light at the end of the tunnel for the sector?