Labour shortages could continue for two-years, CBI warns

Labour supply problems could last for up to two years and will not be solved by the end of the Job Retention Scheme, the CBI’s director-general, Toby Danker has warned.

The warning comes as the CBI’s director-general has set out priorities for both business and government to guard against labour constraints harming the UK’s economic recovery.

The CBI has warned that while a lack of HGV drivers has “dominated the headlines” the challenge extends well beyond to include other skilled professions, and along with resulting disruption to supply chains, has led to increasing calls for action in the run up to Christmas.

As such, the CBI has put forward three actions the government can do to try and alleviate the current challenges which include; marrying skills policies to roles with the highest unfilled vacancies; adding greater flexibility to the Apprenticeship Levy and using the government’s own skill-focused immigration levers to alleviate short-term pressures.

The CBI’s labour market intelligence builds on data from the business group’s recent economic surveys and deep member consultation, which point to labour shortages as a “growing constraint” on business’ plans to invest in the year ahead.

The CBI said it is also urging businesses to “play their part” on long term productivity reforms by continuing to invest in training, automation and digital transformation, together with doing more to attract and retain staff from a “diverse talent pool”.

Danker said: “Labour shortages are biting right across the economy. While the CBI and other economists still predict growth returning to pre-pandemic levels later this year, furlough ending is not the panacea some people think will magically fill labour supply gaps. These shortages are already affecting business operations, and will have a negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery.

“Other European countries are also experiencing staffing shortages as their economies bounce back. In the UK, many overseas workers left during the pandemic affecting sectors including hospitality, logistics and food processing. And new immigration rules make replacing those who left more complex.”

He added: “Building a more innovative economy – coupled with better training and education – can sustainably improve business performance, wages and living standards. But transformation on this scale requires planning and takes time.

“The Government’s ambition that the UK economy should become more high-skilled and productive is right. But implying that this can be achieved overnight is simply wrong. And a refusal to deploy temporary and targeted interventions to enable economic recovery is self-defeating.”

He concluded: “Using existing levers at the UK’s control – like placing drivers, welders, butchers and bricklayers on the shortage occupation list – could make a real difference. The Government promised an immigration system that would focus on the skills we need rather than unrestrained access to overseas labour. Yet here we have obvious and short term skilled need but a system that can’t seem to respond.

“Great economies like great businesses can walk and chew gum. We need short term fixes to spur recovery and long-term reforms to change our economic model.”