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London hotel occupancy hit by Middle East conflict

London hotel occupancy hit by Middle East conflict

While London saw a decline, UK-wide occupancy rose slightly from 73.2% to 73.6% over the same period

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London hotel occupancy fell in March as the conflict in the Middle East began to impact international travel.

Data from the RSM UK Hotel Tracker revealed that occupancy in the capital declined from 76.3% to 74.8% year-on-year.

The figures, compiled by Hotstats and analysed by RSM UK, indicated a divergence between the capital and the wider country. 

While London saw a decline, UK-wide occupancy rose slightly from 73.2% to 73.6% over the same period.

Average daily rates in London increased by 5% to £190.24, while national rates rose 3% to £136.78. 

Despite higher room prices, gross operating profits fell in both markets. London margins decreased from 33.6% to 32.6%, and UK margins dropped from 30.1% to 29.5%.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, suggested that a squeeze on disposable incomes could impact future bookings as inflation is projected to peak at approximately 4% later this year.

Chris Tate, head of hotels at RSM UK, said: “The immediate impact of the Middle East conflict has started filtering through to the hotel industry, with London occupancy taking a hit.

“Ongoing travel disruptions will have inevitably put a stop to some international tourists’ plans, while business trips may have also been put on hold. The above inflation increase in room rates will have offered some reprieve to hoteliers and cushioned the blow to occupancy levels, but that didn’t reach the bottom line due to increased employment costs.”

Tate added: “Growing concerns around jet fuel shortages could result in fewer inbound tourists to the UK and less business travel, but domestic travellers opting for a UK staycation instead may partly offset this.

“However, there will be more headwinds for the industry to navigate, as higher wages, rising energy and business rates bills, and lower consumer sentiment feed through in the coming months.”

London’s hotel occupancy dips amid Middle East unrest

News Analysis

London’s hotel occupancy fell from 76.3% in March last year to 74.8% this year, a clear sign of the disruptive influence of geopolitical unrest. This echoes earlier declines seen in December 2015 when terrorism fears caused a similar downturn, resulting in a 4.2% fall in occupancy.

In the years since, the London hotel market has witnessed a tumultuous relationship with external shocks, from political uncertainty post-Brexit to rising energy prices complicating operational margins. While average daily room rates have increased, gross operating profits have frequently dipped, indicating the underlying fragility of London’s hotel sector.

With rising staff costs and increased competition, the forecast for the coming months appears grim. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East further compounds these challenges, leaving hoteliers grappling with a predictably fluctuating demand and tight profit margins that show little sign of stabilising soon.

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